None of the above

I'm a little bit obsessed with political races, so I was pretty excited to find the Iowa Electronic Markets. It's like a poll that is updated EVERY SECOND OF EVERY DAY. I was amused by the graph above, which shows that your best bet for republican nominee is "someone else".

By the way, intrade is even crazier. By that market, it's about as likely that Blake Lewis will win American Idol as it is that the U.S. will bomb Iran by December 31st. Also, it is somehow more likely that Blake Lewis will win Idol than that a man will win. The invisible hand has some work to do.